Tariffs: One part negotiation, one part reality

The other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 look strong while the tech sector shows weakness. Opportunity through active management but volatility remains a threat. 

Week One. So far, so good.

So far, so good for Trump 47 but tariff prospects are a weakness. Opportunity by embracing optimism but a ticked-off Trump is a threat. 

First year of a new presidency starts today

Discretionary stocks vs staples is our strength while market volatility creates weakness. The first year of a presidency brings opportunity but the dollar's strength i...

You probably own a lot more tech stocks than you think you do

Services stay strong while sentiment and valuation show weakness. There is opportunity as fear fades but if the markets don't broaden out soon, we could see a signific...

Outside of the Mag 7, breadth is weak.

Back in black gold is our strength while bad breadth is becoming a weakness. There is opportunity in real yields and real growth while a threat emerges with price bein...

2025. Follow the earnings

2024 was a magnificent year but international malaise is a weakness. Opportunity with new leaders in a new year but the potential for more volatility is a threat. 

You're a mean one, Mr. Fed

The US economy is resilient while sentiment and valuation pose weaknesses. For opportunity, take the long view while the possibility of inflation rearing its ugly head...

Duration compensation is back!

Optimism, but inflation's a touch hot. Opportunities, since the Fed won’t defy gravity but will we see tariffs before we hear talk? 

The economy keeps chugging along

The economy keeps chugging but manufacturing continues its weakness. Watch for opportunity in beaten-down industries but watch the threat of high valuations. 

Risk mitigation. Turkeys have it pretty good. Until they don't.

Moderating inflation drives improved purchasing power while the air has been let out of software. 2025 earnings acceleration is an opportunity but ignoring risk mitiga...

Are we in a melt-UP?

Goodbye uncertainty but higher rates on a valuation headwind are a weakness. Laggards are turning into leaders but remember the risk before the market makes you. 

'Boring' is becoming the new 'interesting'

Special Guest: Brian Kersmanc - Portfolio Manager - GQG Partners

Tax Cut Trump or Tariff War Trump?

Markets elect to rally but ballet box bond blues are a weakness. Campaigning for change presents opportunity but polling pressures trade and inflation create threats. 

Election week

Good goods growth so far for a strength while valuations pose a weakness. There is opportunity with Election Day on the doorstep but election angst is a threat. 

The Halloween Episode

Strength: The undead dollar. Weakness: Rates Ding Dong Ditch it. Opportunities: Bobbing for duration. Threat: Phantom Market Movement.

Recession warning signals

Retail sales stay strong while volatility remains in long rates. There's another chance to add duration but recession warning signals are beginning. 

AI's 'green shoots'

Stocks are the strength this week while yields up while certain asset prices are down are a weakness. There is opportunity to get growing at a reasonable price while v...

The jobs number and incoming earnings

Hard data supports a soft landing while returns may have discounted positive future fundamentals. There's an opportunity to get out of cash but rebounding inflation po...

China's shock and awe

China gooses its economy while US consumers aren't feeling confident. There was a big cut but little pain, possibly because easing might have been too little, too late. 

Housing, nukes, and volatility

Housing appears in both strengths and weaknesses this week. There is opportunity in small caps and natural gas while long yield and election volatility are threats.