All Episodes
Another hangover like 2019?
Dr Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist, and Ken Bellinger, Research Analyst present the Labor Day Weekend edition of the SWOT Podcast.
Time to cut? The Fed vs The Market
There's broad Fed agreement at the Jackson Hole meeting that it's time to cut, but the Fed and the market are on different pages.
Volatility produces a lot of opportunity
Inflation continues to abate while the labor market weakens. Opportunity exists through volatility while the threat remains for a Fed policy error.
Sometimes strengths can bleed over to weaknesses
Strength: inflation abation. Weakness: sales and earnings pressure. Opportunity: financials, dividend growers, and select growth stocks. Threat: a Fed delay.
"Trading last week looked...frightening"
Strength: bonds diversified stocks. Weakness: the labor market. Opportunity: selective stock selection. Threat: bad news is now bad news.
Consumers gonna consume
It's what they do best, consumers consuming---and that's our strength this week. China grasping at straws is a weakness but there is opportunity to ride the market emo...
The danger of being too sure of the outcome
Strength: The Fed's tone is changingWeakness: Tech wreckOpportunity: Ride the rotationThreat: Snowballing negative sentiment
Beware the Red Queen
Strength: interest rate pressure might be subsiding. Weakness: risk to earnings forecasts. Opportunity: companies that disproportionately benefit from lower rates. Thr...
A political risk....but not THAT way
Modest progress toward inflation targets for strength but weakness with cracks in the credit armor. Opportunity exists with cheap protection but economic roadburn and ...
A big week for data
Our strength is continued US exceptionalism while concentration risks in the economy present weakness. Opportunity exists by not extrapolating the downward trend in mo...
Will the Fed act properly?
Nvidia (and chips) are strong while consumers are feeling pinched. There is opportunity with the acceleration of earnings but a threat remains if the Fed acts too litt...
A little too cozy in the Magnificent Seven?
Back on track for inflation but lingering weakness in transportation names. Opportunity with quality growth (and AI has legs!) but complacency in the Magnificent Seven.
1st Tuesday November. A date with destiny?
Interest and dividends are helping retirees but higher rates may eventually bite. There are opportunities in infrastructure and utilities with AI but geopolitical risk...
Growth: Slowing to a crawl
Strength: Average stock is better than the index. Weakness: Auction anxiety is back. Opportunity: Oversold interest rate sensitives are good for a trade. Weakness: Gro...
NVIDIA kills it
NVIDIA is the coolest kid in the class but we're beginning to see a bifurcated economy. Opportunities exist by focusing on quality but a growth scare poses a threat.
DOW 40k!
A 40,000 DOW is a strength while there are more cracks in the consumer's facade. Why sell in May when you can just stay? And a no-landing but turbulence ahead appears ...
Inflation. A messy sort of data.
Rising earnings expectations are a strength but is the labor market beginning to crack? An opportunity exists to rethink real assets but the threat of decelerating eco...
The Fed is navigating using a rearview mirror
A dovish tilt and buybacks are powering the market forward but there's weakness with cracks forming in the consumer facade. Market misconception is providing opportuni...
AI and earnings.
AI momentum continues while a bifurcated consumer is a weakness. AI requires real assets, that's an opportunity while sticky inflation remains a threat.
EPISODE 100! "It feels worse than it's been" (the week, not the podcasts)
Global growth is better than expected but higher mortgage rates are dampening housing. There's opportunity as April showers bring May flowers but the threat grows that...
King Dollar. Still the safe haven.
The dollar is still king while that hot CPI print is a weakness. Opportunity exists in corporate bonds for income, but the unknown unknowns are a threat.
Gold shines
Gold is at a 5000 year high while retail is on sale. Active management offers an opportunity across the board but inflationary tailwinds intensify.
The return of supply chain issues?
Firmness in treasury yields but non AI sales projects face an elongated sales cycle. There are opportunities as the overall market broadens but deficits are keeping ra...
Mojo and Stagflation
Manufacturing mojo is coming back while pricing power to margin pressure is a weakness. Opportunities exist in credit while stagflation narratives pose a threat.
We've identified that huge sucking sound
Manufacturing might be finding a footing in the US while inflation remains a weakness. Cross-country divergences create opportunities while threat is the giant sucking...
"...this is a time most reminiscent of 1998."
The economy is strong and the market is pushing while the US dollar's potential is weakening. There's opportunity to slowly and proactively move money into longer date...
Rates and inflation remain sticky
Markets don't do much in election years until the outcome is clear.