All Episodes
Gold shines
Gold is at a 5000 year high while retail is on sale. Active management offers an opportunity across the board but inflationary tailwinds intensify.
The return of supply chain issues?
Firmness in treasury yields but non AI sales projects face an elongated sales cycle. There are opportunities as the overall market broadens but deficits are keeping ra...
Mojo and Stagflation
Manufacturing mojo is coming back while pricing power to margin pressure is a weakness. Opportunities exist in credit while stagflation narratives pose a threat.
We've identified that huge sucking sound
Manufacturing might be finding a footing in the US while inflation remains a weakness. Cross-country divergences create opportunities while threat is the giant sucking...
"...this is a time most reminiscent of 1998."
The economy is strong and the market is pushing while the US dollar's potential is weakening. There's opportunity to slowly and proactively move money into longer date...
Rates and inflation remain sticky
Markets don't do much in election years until the outcome is clear.
Virtuous cycle to vicious cycle?
This week's strengths are the news highs while Fed pushback continues and so does the rise in yields. There is opportunity in the virtuous cycle but commercial real es...
Kudos to the Fed's messaging
Kudos to the Fed's messaging but hot inflation and cold spending is a threat. One man's garbage is another man's treasure (and opportunity) but watch out for the thre...
My oh my. That AI!
Trees are growing to the sky while interest rate exposed securities continue to lag. There are opportunities as bad breadth improves but uncertainty remains a threat.
Eyes on the Fed
We're in a good place but there are still signs of stress with some regional banks. Simple opportunities exist by maintaining a balanced portfolio. The Middle East is ...
Sticking the soft landing?
Almost perfect economic data meets hypersensitive areas in the market. Even with a pullback, there are relative value opportunities while a breaking bad forecast inclu...
Opportunity and Threats as equals?
The economic damage has been contained but weakness appears while wrestling with the Fed's communication. Opportunity exists with the Fed NOT tanking the economy--but ...
The 'AI Chaser'
The mega map momentum runs into a small cap and earnings retreat. Broadening use of AI is an opportunity while persistent inflation and rise energy costs pose a threat.
Did the market get ahead of itself?
The good jobs report might be solidifying the soft landing scenario but a cyclical strength isn't great. Do pullbacks equal opportunity? A threat could emerge when the...
2023 in review, 2024 straight ahead.
Momentum continued but China and the Credit Crunch were a drag. Opportunity exists for active managers while the Fed being slow to react to deteriorating conditions is...
The Christmas Episode
Santa Claus came for small caps but the dollar has been dashing downward. Stock pickers need to do some homework but will it be a blue Christmas for bonds?
The transition from pause to cut can be bumpy
Interest rate sensitive assets are a strength while the Magnificent 7 might be going from magnificent to middling. There is opportunity in the catch-up trade but trans...
Early resolution for 2024? Balance.
The buy-the-dip-reflex seems to be strong while the slow slide into stagnation is a weakness. There's an opportunity to get back into balance but data dependence equal...
Chipotle buy-now-pay-later?
Besides learning why one of the members of the Investment Team uses buy-now-pay-later for Chipotle, there are plenty of other things to talk about. Yields are down bu...
Two PHDs walk into a podcast....
Double PHD's on this episode. Good news IS good news but weak holiday guidance is an issue. Genuine growth is scarce, demands a premium, and is an opportunity while a ...
Are we seeing end of the year FOMO?
Santa's sleigh is being pulled by some Bulls --but risk reward is looking risky. Dumpster diving is back on the menu but the Fed is hurting the government more than Wa...
It's a cliche, but when do we NOT have volatility?
Potential earnings improvement is a strength while mid and small cap stocks underperform. For opportunities; the '40' part of a 60/40 portfolio could have good risk-ad...
The Powell Pause and the power of lower expectations.
What the pause means for fixed income and equity markets is a strength while equity valuations remain a weakness. Expectations are low, that's an opportunity. That alo...
Who's got bad breadth?
Artificial intelligence is here and a definite strength Meanwhile, bad breadth pulls equity returns lower and is a weakness. Look to risk/reward for stock and bonds f...
Time for a Powell pause?
The consumer is like the Energizer Bunny...but bonds shouldn't be this nerve wracking. On the other side, if you can hold them, bonds might be an opportunity. Watch fo...
A busy week for economic data. Plus, a threat to the munchies.
Classic defensives did their work while the consumer might be starting to crack. Opportunity might exist by looking at what hasn't worked while the Fed could be late t...
Does Jawboning Still Work?
This week will yield plenty of data for experts to inspect. As inflation starts to diminish, Powell may have painted himself into a corner given some of his statements...
A bit of a lost year for bonds
Energy and employment are strengths while yield sensitive assets remain weak. There are opportunities via reasonable valuations and increased bond yields but risk prem...